- Scattered to widespread showers (50-80% chance) this evening and into Saturday.

increase to about 40-50% south of the Missouri River by 6 PM or so

before expanding further north overnight.

greatest primarily in areas west of I-35 where hourly PoPs approach

70-80% just around midnight.

A few lightning strikes are possible this evening (10-20% chance).

that most will remain as light rain showers.

All that said...generally expecting around 0.25" to

0.5" of rain west of I-35 through early Saturday afternoon.

Elsewhere, accumulations will likely fall below 0.25".

Locally higher amounts will be possible

- Isolated showers possible (15-30% chance) Saturday afternoon and evening.

Given the low-level dry layer, though, these would be isolated and brief in nature.

Sunday looks dry with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s across the forecast area.

Rain chances return late Sunday night and into Monday as an upper- trough encourages surface cyclogenesis off of the Rockies.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely (60-95%) Monday and Tuesday.

This will advect substantial moisture into the region with PWATs soaring to around 1.75".

Confidence in rain is

A few lightning strikes are possible this evening (10-20% chance). - Isolated showers possible (15-30% chance) Saturday afternoon and evening. - Showers and thunderstorms are likely (60-95%) Monday and Tuesday. Some storms on Monday could be strong/severe, but uncertainty remains.

Some storms on Monday could be strong/severe, but uncertainty remains.

A few lightning strikes are possible this evening (10-20% chance). - Isolated showers possible (15-30% chance) Saturday afternoon and evening. - Showers and thunderstorms are likely (60-95%) Monday and Tuesday. Some storms on Monday could be strong/severe, but uncertainty remains.

Some storms on Monday could be strong/severe, but uncertainty remains.

Forecast PWATs are also nearing or exceeding the maximum of NAEFS climatology. While the shear space seems impressive, instability is certainly lesser. It's possible that a high-CAPE, low-shear environment awaits us on Monday ahead of a cold front. This will be the key timeframe to monitor over the coming forecast cycles.

WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk

(Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for portions of northern

Missouri and northeastern Kansas.

probabilities for 24-hour rainfall accumulations of at least 0.25" by 1 PM Saturday

roughly between I-29 and I-35 in Missouri (including the Kansas City

Model spread is also higher in these areas

Some uncertainty is introduced by a weaker shortwave that approaches southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri as it could help spawn some showers in the evening.

Given the low-level dry layer, though, these would be isolated and brief in nature.

It's possible that a high-CAPE, low-shear environment awaits us on Monday ahead of a cold front.

Forecast PWATs are also nearing or exceeding the maximum of NAEFS climatology. While the shear space seems impressive, instability is certainly lesser. It's possible that a high-CAPE, low-shear environment awaits us on Monday ahead of a cold front. This will be the key timeframe to monitor over the coming forecast cycles.

Sunday looks dry with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s across the forecast area.

- Isolated to scattered (15-30% chance) showers Saturday and Sunday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely (60-95%) Monday and Tuesday.

- Widespread precipitation (60-95% chance) Monday - Monday night.

A few lightning strikes are possible this evening (10-20% chance).

that most will remain as light rain showers.

- Scattered to widespread (40-80% chance) showers and storms today, mainly for areas along and north of the Missouri River.

Moreover, the daily maximum PWATs from their climatology during the first week of November is around 1.5". Forecast PWATs are also nearing or exceeding the maximum of NAEFS climatology. While the shear space seems impressive, instability is certainly lesser. It's possible that a high-CAPE, low-shear environment awaits us on Monday ahead of a cold front.

It's possible that a high-CAPE, low-shear environment awaits us on Monday ahead of a cold front.

Instability looks weak overall but given the strong kinematics, we'll need to watch for the potential for strong/severe storms in what may be a high-shear, low-CAPE environment across eastern Kansas and western Missouri for Monday afternoon and evening.

- Isolated to scattered (15-40% chance) showers today.

result in an increase in coverage of showers late this morning/early

this afternoon across eastern Kansas and west-central Missouri

activity then lifts to the north and east with time through the

While it doesn't look like a washout,

anyone doing outside activities may need an umbrella with them.

Fortunately, the chances for storms looks low with only weak

showers will decrease in coverage and eventually come to an end.

that should keep the area dry

The Monday system is much stronger than the previous shortwaves.

Strong southerly flow ahead of this system will result in very strong moisture transport into the area.

- Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Monday evening into the overnight hours.

A more plausible scenario is that storms develop along or just ahead of the front/ dryline well west of the area and then track east into the area later in the evening or overnight hours.

In the wake of this system, temperatures trend closer to normal for the later half of next week.

Normal highs are in the upper 50s so even though we cool down, highs still look to be a few degrees above normal with highs forecast to be in the lower to middle 60s.

This looks possible, though unlikely, based on some of the forecast soundings in that area showing minimal or no CIN by the afternoon hours.

- Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Monday evening into the overnight hours.

Any one of these would have the potential for strong to severe storms and given the strong kinematics, strong to damaging winds will be the most likely hazard.

Strong 0-3km shear may also support a tornado risk as well if a mature line of storms moves into the area.

The latest Day 3 Convective Outlook brings a marginal risk of severe weather to eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

A slight risk clips the extreme southwestern portions of the forecast area.

Storms could develop in the warm sector over eastern Kansas, well ahead of the front.

This looks possible, though unlikely, based on some of the forecast soundings in that area showing minimal or no CIN by the afternoon hours.

There could also be some combination of both of these with storms developing earlier in the warm sector, then a line of storms moving into the area in association with the front, though this also seems less likely.

Any one of these would have the potential for strong to severe storms and given the strong kinematics, strong to damaging winds will be the most likely hazard.

- Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Monday evening into the overnight hours.

Any one of these would have the potential for strong to severe storms and given the strong kinematics, strong to damaging winds will be the most likely hazard.

Strong 0-3km shear may also support a tornado risk as well if a mature line of storms moves into the area.

The latest Day 3 Convective Outlook brings a marginal risk of severe weather to eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Some storms on Monday could be strong/severe, but uncertainty remains.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely (60-95%) Monday and Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

- Scattered to widespread (40-80% chance) showers and storms today, mainly for areas along and north of the Missouri River. - Isolated to scattered (15-30% chance) showers Saturday and Sunday. - Widespread precipitation (60-95% chance) Monday - Monday night. There is some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 0501 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Isolated to scattered (15-40% chance) showers today.

peaking during the afternoon through dusk timeframe.

rain chances into the evening hours as the mid-level disturbance

rain is expected to remain light

lightning at bay, but the possibility cannot

be entirely ruled out

Overnight, a shortwave ridge will build into the Plains, keeping Sunday dry.

- Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Monday evening into the overnight hours.

While damaging winds appear to be the main concern for our area, there looks to be support for a tornado threat at least some point during the evening.

A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather clips Linn County, KS.

Despite the highly anomalous moisture profiles for this time of year, antecedent soil conditions remain near normal and should hopefully help limit potential flooding impacts.

Some rain and storms may bleed into the day on Tuesday but are currently expected to clear by the evening hours.

Behind this system, cooler temperatures settle in for the mid/late week with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 60s.

How much this threat is realized seems dependent on the timing of storms as shear profiles become less supportive as the evening progresses.

Improved temporal resolution of guidance in forthcoming shifts should help clarify the evolution of the environment on Monday.

SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather to include more of northwestern Missouri; eastern Kansas and western Missouri still remain in this risk category as well.

A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather clips Linn County, KS.

While damaging winds appear to be the main concern for our area, there looks to be support for a tornado threat at least some point during the evening.

WPC has maintained the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Monday.

Despite the highly anomalous moisture profiles for this time of year, antecedent soil conditions remain near normal and should hopefully help limit potential flooding impacts.

How much this threat is realized seems dependent on the timing of storms as shear profiles become less supportive as the evening progresses.

The current, general expectation for events on Monday is for convective initiation to occur further west before growing upscale, leading to a more linear storm mode locally.

Despite the highly anomalous moisture profiles for this time of year, antecedent soil conditions remain near normal and should hopefully help limit potential flooding impacts.

SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather to include more of northwestern Missouri; eastern Kansas and western Missouri still remain in this risk category as well.

The latest Day 3 Convective Outlook brings a marginal risk of severe weather to eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

While damaging winds appear to be the main concern for our area, there looks to be support for a tornado threat at least some point during the evening.

Strong 0-3km shear may also support a tornado risk as well if a mature line of storms moves into the area.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

- Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Monday evening into the overnight hours.