- Isolated to scattered (15-40% chance) showers today.

peaking during the afternoon through dusk timeframe.

rain chances into the evening hours as the mid-level disturbance

rain is expected to remain light

lightning at bay, but the possibility cannot

be entirely ruled out

Overnight, a shortwave ridge will build into the Plains, keeping Sunday dry.

- Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Monday evening into the overnight hours.

While damaging winds appear to be the main concern for our area, there looks to be support for a tornado threat at least some point during the evening.

A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather clips Linn County, KS.

Despite the highly anomalous moisture profiles for this time of year, antecedent soil conditions remain near normal and should hopefully help limit potential flooding impacts.

Some rain and storms may bleed into the day on Tuesday but are currently expected to clear by the evening hours.

Behind this system, cooler temperatures settle in for the mid/late week with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 60s.

How much this threat is realized seems dependent on the timing of storms as shear profiles become less supportive as the evening progresses.

Improved temporal resolution of guidance in forthcoming shifts should help clarify the evolution of the environment on Monday.

SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather to include more of northwestern Missouri; eastern Kansas and western Missouri still remain in this risk category as well.

A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather clips Linn County, KS.

While damaging winds appear to be the main concern for our area, there looks to be support for a tornado threat at least some point during the evening.

WPC has maintained the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Monday.

Despite the highly anomalous moisture profiles for this time of year, antecedent soil conditions remain near normal and should hopefully help limit potential flooding impacts.

How much this threat is realized seems dependent on the timing of storms as shear profiles become less supportive as the evening progresses.

The current, general expectation for events on Monday is for convective initiation to occur further west before growing upscale, leading to a more linear storm mode locally.

Despite the highly anomalous moisture profiles for this time of year, antecedent soil conditions remain near normal and should hopefully help limit potential flooding impacts.

SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather to include more of northwestern Missouri; eastern Kansas and western Missouri still remain in this risk category as well.

The latest Day 3 Convective Outlook brings a marginal risk of severe weather to eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

While damaging winds appear to be the main concern for our area, there looks to be support for a tornado threat at least some point during the evening.

Strong 0-3km shear may also support a tornado risk as well if a mature line of storms moves into the area.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

- Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Monday evening into the overnight hours.

Precipitation chances will decrease through the morning hours today

moisture will be trapped in the lower portions of the atmosphere so we'll continue to see cloud cover

This should keep highs in the 60s across the area.

Focus shifts to Monday afternoon through the overnight hours as a strong shortwave trough moves east into the central US.

Storms seem likely to initiate along the cold front in central Kansas and Oklahoma during the afternoon.

These may be supercells initially but these should develop into a line as they move east late in the afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being the most likely hazard.

Very strong southerly low-level flow will lead to anomalously high precipitable water values, supporting potential for heavy rainfall.

Unsettled weather will linger into Tuesday, though how unsettled it may be is a little uncertain.

With the upper low moving over Kansas into Missouri through the day, we should still see some potential for precipitation through the day Tuesday.

Temperatures through the remainder of the forecast look cooler, though still slightly above normal for this time of year, with highs generally in the low to mid 60s.

But's a trailing, stronger jet max will move across the area later in the day and into the overnight hours.

And that seems to be the more likely time frame for severe storms across eastern Kansas into western Missouri.

- Strong to severe storms are possible late Monday afternoon into the overnight hours.

And that seems to be the more likely time frame for severe storms across eastern Kansas into western Missouri.

These may be supercells initially but these should develop into a line as they move east late in the afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being the most likely hazard.

With 0-.5km helicity values pushing 200 m2/s2 can't rule out a tornado or two over eastern Kansas and adjacent areas of Missouri as the line of storms moves east during the evening and overnight hours.

The Slight Risk area was expanded northeastward on the latest Day 2 Convective Outlook, with much of western Missouri and eastern Kansas in a Marginal Risk.

SPC has expanded the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather to include more of northwestern Missouri; eastern Kansas and western Missouri still remain in this risk category as well.

A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather clips Linn County, KS.

Very strong southerly low-level flow will lead to anomalously high precipitable water values, supporting potential for heavy rainfall.

The deterministic NAM is considerably slower with the upper wave and and actually has some potential for severe weather Tuesday morning.

The GFS is further east with potential storms east of our forecast area.

In the upper-levels, a leading jet max may help initiate storms in the warm sector.

But's a trailing, stronger jet max will move across the area later in the day and into the overnight hours.

The Slight Risk area was expanded northeastward on the latest Day 2 Convective Outlook, with much of western Missouri and eastern Kansas in a Marginal Risk.

A Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather clips Linn County, KS.

- Strong to severe storms are possible late Monday afternoon into the overnight hours.

- Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Monday evening into the overnight hours.

Precipitation chances will decrease through the morning hours today

we'll continue to see cloud cover

Overnight, a shortwave ridge will build into the Plains, keeping Sunday dry.

- Unsettled weather lingers into Tuesday with temperatures closer to normal through the end of the week.

Temperatures through the remainder of the forecast look cooler, though still slightly above normal for this time of year, with highs generally in the low to mid 60s.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

- Strong to severe storms are possible late Monday afternoon into the overnight hours.

a few breaks in cloud cover may be possible

which will limit the ability to completely clear the overcast and misty conditions across the forecast area

Scattered showers are likely along the nose of stronger isentropic upglide Monday morning through early afternoon.

For eastern Kansas to Central Missouri, this will likely keep dense cloud cover

depending on how faster the 500mb trough axis moves

which may produce some thunderstorm activity

The more likely scenario will be discrete convection developing in south- central Kansas, then growing upscale into an MCS or QLCS along the cold front through the evening, that then rolls into the area.

Through eastern Kansas, there should be just enough instability to bring a strong line or clusters storms toward the KS-MO state line.

If there is enough destabilization early, storms could develop over east-central Kansas as early as 20z [2 PM CST], and then move eastward.

CI may have to wait until after 23z [5 PM CST] though.

The first line should start to push east of the forecast area by 04z [10 PM CST], but another vorticity lobe and dCVA may happen behind the cold front that could result in post-frontal convection that may goes past 06z [12 AM CST] before it exits into eastern Missouri.

As for hydrology, QPF amounts are generally around 1.00 for an event total, with HREF probability matched mean values showing pockets of 1.75 in south of Hwy.

The first line should start to push east of the forecast area by 04z [10 PM CST], but another vorticity lobe and dCVA may happen behind the cold front that could result in post-frontal convection that may goes past 06z [12 AM CST] before it exits into eastern Missouri. Depending on their inflow bases, uncertain how much a severe threat these storms would pose. As for hydrology, QPF amounts are generally around 1.00 for an event total, with HREF probability matched mean values showing pockets of 1.75 in south of Hwy. 36.

Current deterministic guidance depicts the wrap-around precipitation shield just missing our forecast area, remaining in southern Iowa and moving northeastward.

Ensemble probabilities for measurable precipitation are also fairly low for most of the forecast area.

Northerly flow will help keep high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s, with only upper 50s possible near the Iowa-Missouri state line.

The instability is the greatest source of uncertainty with how the severe threat will play out for eastern Kansas and western Missouri late afternoon Monday and through the evening.

With the insufficient instability expected earlier in the afternoon, this scenario will be difficult to realize.

- Strong to Severe Storms Monday Late Afternoon and Evening

Normal MCS or QLCS wind threat will exist in this very favorable deep layer shear environment, fostering the development of strong cold pools and maintaining balance.

With deep layer shear present on both of sides of the boundary, and anticipated low-level jet, surges within the line are possible that will help to enhance to winds.

The 0-3km bulk shear will also being very strong, well above 30 kts even into the warm-sector, along with enough 0-3km CAPE that could promote mesovortex generation along surges that are oriented from northwest to southeast, enhancing winds and developing brief a brief tornado.

Hail threat should be fairly minimal after upscale growth.

An isolated severe storm prior to 20z [2 PM CST] is possible if there is any kind of mesoscale clearing

Depending on their inflow bases, uncertain how much a severe threat these storms would pose.

With the strong shear and progressive nature of this trough, storms should be moving at a faster enough to speed to limit training, therefore limiting flooding concerns.

Heavier rainfall over urbanized areas may result in elevated levels of local creeks and streams.

If there is any kind of localized subsidence prior to sunset that destabilizes the boundary layer with dewpoints in the mid 60s, mid-level cooling that steepens lapse rates will readily increase CAPE for SB and ML parcels.

Throw in the increasing forcing and deep layer bulk shear magnitudes upwards of 50kts, storms will have what they need to go severe, even if their tops are under 35kft.

If the boundary layer does not rapidly destabilize, it may take a longer for activity to develop, but there should be enough instability and lift to help some kind of organized activity get going, with the uncertainty being how long it could remain strong.

The forecast for Tuesday and beyond will largely be tied to how the mid-level trough wraps up and if it becomes a closed-low system, with another trough potentially ejecting out of the Rockies.

Current deterministic guidance depicts the wrap-around precipitation shield just missing our forecast area, remaining in southern Iowa and moving northeastward.

Ensemble probabilities for measurable precipitation are also fairly low for most of the forecast area.

Unsettled weather will linger into Tuesday, though how unsettled it may be is a little uncertain.

With the upper low moving over Kansas into Missouri through the day, we should still see some potential for precipitation through the day Tuesday.

The deterministic NAM is considerably slower with the upper wave and and actually has some potential for severe weather Tuesday morning.

With the strong shear and progressive nature of this trough, storms should be moving at a faster enough to speed to limit training, therefore limiting flooding concerns.

Very strong southerly low-level flow will lead to anomalously high precipitable water values, supporting potential for heavy rainfall.

Northerly flow will help keep high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s, with only upper 50s possible near the Iowa-Missouri state line.

Temperatures through the remainder of the forecast look cooler, though still slightly above normal for this time of year, with highs generally in the low to mid 60s.

- Additional Rain Chances Middle of This Week

Ensemble probabilities for measurable precipitation are also fairly low for most of the forecast area.