a few breaks in cloud cover may be possible

which will limit the ability to completely clear the overcast and misty conditions across the forecast area

Scattered showers are likely along the nose of stronger isentropic upglide Monday morning through early afternoon.

For eastern Kansas to Central Missouri, this will likely keep dense cloud cover

depending on how faster the 500mb trough axis moves

which may produce some thunderstorm activity

The more likely scenario will be discrete convection developing in south- central Kansas, then growing upscale into an MCS or QLCS along the cold front through the evening, that then rolls into the area.

Through eastern Kansas, there should be just enough instability to bring a strong line or clusters storms toward the KS-MO state line.

If there is enough destabilization early, storms could develop over east-central Kansas as early as 20z [2 PM CST], and then move eastward.

CI may have to wait until after 23z [5 PM CST] though.

The first line should start to push east of the forecast area by 04z [10 PM CST], but another vorticity lobe and dCVA may happen behind the cold front that could result in post-frontal convection that may goes past 06z [12 AM CST] before it exits into eastern Missouri.

As for hydrology, QPF amounts are generally around 1.00 for an event total, with HREF probability matched mean values showing pockets of 1.75 in south of Hwy.

The first line should start to push east of the forecast area by 04z [10 PM CST], but another vorticity lobe and dCVA may happen behind the cold front that could result in post-frontal convection that may goes past 06z [12 AM CST] before it exits into eastern Missouri. Depending on their inflow bases, uncertain how much a severe threat these storms would pose. As for hydrology, QPF amounts are generally around 1.00 for an event total, with HREF probability matched mean values showing pockets of 1.75 in south of Hwy. 36.

Current deterministic guidance depicts the wrap-around precipitation shield just missing our forecast area, remaining in southern Iowa and moving northeastward.

Ensemble probabilities for measurable precipitation are also fairly low for most of the forecast area.

Northerly flow will help keep high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s, with only upper 50s possible near the Iowa-Missouri state line.

The instability is the greatest source of uncertainty with how the severe threat will play out for eastern Kansas and western Missouri late afternoon Monday and through the evening.

With the insufficient instability expected earlier in the afternoon, this scenario will be difficult to realize.

- Strong to Severe Storms Monday Late Afternoon and Evening

Normal MCS or QLCS wind threat will exist in this very favorable deep layer shear environment, fostering the development of strong cold pools and maintaining balance.

With deep layer shear present on both of sides of the boundary, and anticipated low-level jet, surges within the line are possible that will help to enhance to winds.

The 0-3km bulk shear will also being very strong, well above 30 kts even into the warm-sector, along with enough 0-3km CAPE that could promote mesovortex generation along surges that are oriented from northwest to southeast, enhancing winds and developing brief a brief tornado.

Hail threat should be fairly minimal after upscale growth.

An isolated severe storm prior to 20z [2 PM CST] is possible if there is any kind of mesoscale clearing

Depending on their inflow bases, uncertain how much a severe threat these storms would pose.

With the strong shear and progressive nature of this trough, storms should be moving at a faster enough to speed to limit training, therefore limiting flooding concerns.

Heavier rainfall over urbanized areas may result in elevated levels of local creeks and streams.

If there is any kind of localized subsidence prior to sunset that destabilizes the boundary layer with dewpoints in the mid 60s, mid-level cooling that steepens lapse rates will readily increase CAPE for SB and ML parcels.

Throw in the increasing forcing and deep layer bulk shear magnitudes upwards of 50kts, storms will have what they need to go severe, even if their tops are under 35kft.

If the boundary layer does not rapidly destabilize, it may take a longer for activity to develop, but there should be enough instability and lift to help some kind of organized activity get going, with the uncertainty being how long it could remain strong.

The forecast for Tuesday and beyond will largely be tied to how the mid-level trough wraps up and if it becomes a closed-low system, with another trough potentially ejecting out of the Rockies.

Current deterministic guidance depicts the wrap-around precipitation shield just missing our forecast area, remaining in southern Iowa and moving northeastward.

Ensemble probabilities for measurable precipitation are also fairly low for most of the forecast area.

Unsettled weather will linger into Tuesday, though how unsettled it may be is a little uncertain.

With the upper low moving over Kansas into Missouri through the day, we should still see some potential for precipitation through the day Tuesday.

The deterministic NAM is considerably slower with the upper wave and and actually has some potential for severe weather Tuesday morning.

With the strong shear and progressive nature of this trough, storms should be moving at a faster enough to speed to limit training, therefore limiting flooding concerns.

Very strong southerly low-level flow will lead to anomalously high precipitable water values, supporting potential for heavy rainfall.

Northerly flow will help keep high temperatures in the lower to mid 60s, with only upper 50s possible near the Iowa-Missouri state line.

Temperatures through the remainder of the forecast look cooler, though still slightly above normal for this time of year, with highs generally in the low to mid 60s.

- Additional Rain Chances Middle of This Week

Ensemble probabilities for measurable precipitation are also fairly low for most of the forecast area.

A few showers and storms storms have been able

develop in the far western portions of our forecast area this

Continued destabilization throughout the afternoon

could present an isolated severe threat, but the greater severe

threat is still expected to arrive later in the evening.

Late this afternoon and evening, storms are expected to develop along the dryline in portions of Texas and Oklahoma before racing northeastward with the mid-level jet.

Over time, these storms are expected to grow upscale into a linear/QLCS mode.

- Strong to severe storms possible this evening into the overnight.

Damaging winds and brief, weak line-embedded tornadoes are possible.

The line of storms will continue to progress eastward with a diminishing severe threat overnight.

Early Tuesday morning, a brief restrengthening is possible in the eastern portions of the forecast area, generally in the vicinity of the US-63 corridor ahead of the cold front.

Instability during this time looks especially weak, however, and with exceptionally strong deep-layer shear (on the order of 60-70 kts), it is hard to imagine that many (if any) updrafts will survive long enough to become strong or severe before being sheared apart.

- Precipitation chances linger into Tuesday.

Elsewhere, there may be some lingering scattered post-frontal showers/storms throughout the day.

Given the progressive nature of the incoming system, flash flooding concerns will likely be highly localized and limited to areas that experience especially heavy downpours in a very short amount of time...total accumulations by Tuesday evening are expected to be between 1.0-1.5" with locally higher amounts possible.

Generally lesser accumulations are expected in far northwest and central Missouri near US-63.

Much cooler, more seasonal temperatures are expected for the latter half of the week with daily highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s through the weekend.

- Cooler, fall-like temperatures expected midweek and through the weekend.

Some guidance suggests potential another system to move through Sunday into Monday while others do not, so trends will need to be followed over the coming days.

they symbolize the challenges of the short-term forecast

monitoring of the environment in the extreme near term (next 1-2

hours or so) will be necessary.

ACARS soundings out of

KMCI showcase much weaker instability than what has been noted over

could present an isolated severe threat, but the greater severe

- Strong to severe storms possible this evening into the overnight.

With such a powerful mid-level jet, storm motions of 50-60 knots are probable, enhancing the typical linear storm mode wind threat.

Needless to say, the forecast environment is certainly capable of mesovortex generation; as such, there is an elevated threat of brief line-embedded tornadoes this evening.

Heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding issues.

Anomalously high PWATs around 1.75" could introduce some minor flooding concerns.

Given the progressive nature of the incoming system, flash flooding concerns will likely be highly localized and limited to areas that experience especially heavy downpours in a very short amount of time...total accumulations by Tuesday evening are expected to be between 1.0-1.5" with locally higher amounts possible.

Continued destabilization throughout the afternoon

could present an isolated severe threat

Early Tuesday morning, a brief restrengthening is possible in the eastern portions of the forecast area, generally in the vicinity of the US-63 corridor ahead of the cold front.

Instability during this time looks especially weak, however, and with exceptionally strong deep-layer shear (on the order of 60-70 kts), it is hard to imagine that many (if any) updrafts will survive long enough to become strong or severe before being sheared apart.

Some guidance suggests potential another system to move through Sunday into Monday while others do not, so trends will need to be followed over the coming days.

- Strong to severe storms possible this evening into the overnight.

Damaging winds and brief, weak line-embedded tornadoes are possible.

Heavy downpours could lead to localized flooding issues.

- Strong to severe storms possible late Monday afternoon into the overnight.

Early Tuesday morning, a brief restrengthening is possible in the eastern portions of the forecast area, generally in the vicinity of the US-63 corridor ahead of the cold front.

Instability during this time looks especially weak, however, and with exceptionally strong deep-layer shear (on the order of 60-70 kts), it is hard to imagine that many (if any) updrafts will survive long enough to become strong or severe before being sheared apart.

Tuesday continues to look unsettled and may pose a sneaky severe risk with some instability ahead of the slow moving front late in the morning to early afternoon.

So it's something to keep an eye on but seems lower probability at this point with the greater risk for any additional severe weather well southeast of the forecast area.

Some guidance suggests potential another system to move through Sunday into Monday while others do not, so trends will need to be followed over the coming days.

With 925mb temperatures near 0C, this could support some wintry precipitation.

Given the progressive nature of the incoming system, flash flooding concerns will likely be highly localized and limited to areas that experience especially heavy downpours in a very short amount of time...total accumulations by Tuesday evening are expected to be between 1.0-1.5" with locally higher amounts possible.

Generally lesser accumulations are expected in far northwest and central Missouri near US-63.

Generally lesser accumulations are expected in far northwest and central Missouri near US-63.